Inflation will not decrease soon, but will increase

Importing the current high inflation, it is true. But not the whole truth. It has been said only once in this year’s budget speech that inflation has an impact not only on imports but also on the local market.

Some examples can be given that the whole of inflation is not imported. According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) inflation calculation, the price of rice has increased by Rs 3-4 in May. Not just the price of rice; Wheat, fish-meat, vegetables, edible oil — the prices of almost everything have gone up. These make a big contribution to the calculation of inflation. Wheat and edible oil দু these two products may increase in price due to the international market. The rest of the products are bought from the domestic market.

Rising rice prices are not associated with the international market. Yet why did the price of rice increase in the full season? My guess is that the information that is being given about rice production has actually been less than that. There is always a discrepancy between the agricultural production data of the Department of Agricultural Extension and the BBS.

Thus the production of rice in the country has decreased. At a recent World Trade Organization (WTO) ministerial-level conference, it was said that there could be a global food crisis in the future. Considering all these, expectations have been created among the rice traders of the country that the price of rice may go up in the future. So they have become more focused on stocks. Due to these reasons there is not enough supply of rice in the market. So the price of rice has gone up.

Similarly, prices of non-food items including clothes, shoes and various services have gone up. Demand for this specialty has grown significantly as a result of recent corporate scandals. So the prices of many food and non-food products have gone up, but there is no initiative to reduce this demand.

In the next three-four months, the prices of essential food and non-food items are likely to go up and there is no chance of reduction in prices. There are some reasons behind this. For example, the dollar rose the most in May. It will take another two-three months for the products that have been opened at higher dollar prices to come to the market. In addition, the budget has increased tariffs on laptops, mobile phones, water purification and other middle class consumer goods. Overall, the budget for next fiscal year is 20 percent higher than the expansion-revised budget, which will increase demand.

The latest fear is that large parts of the country will be flooded. Aman seedbed, vegetables are spoiled. These floods could also push up inflation. And in this year’s budget, there is nothing extra in the social security program for the lower class and poor people. It is also being heard that the price of electricity will be increased. Rising electricity prices will further fuel inflation. Considering the overall situation, inflation will not decrease soon, but will increase.

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